THIS time last year we finally made it to Turkey. We spent a rare, serene week in Istanbul or Constantinople as it was once known. Our hotel was in the old city, which has been a witness to the march of history for thousands of years and is home to landmarks like Hagia Sophia, Blue Mosque — the two look like mirror images of each other —Topkapi Palace and much, much more.

Much of our time though was spent in Taksim Square, exploring its bustling bazaars or simply sitting in its exotic restaurants watching the world go by. My wife with her black burqa seemed to stand out. Shopkeepers and waiters addressed her as Hajja apparently mistaking her for an Arab. Full of excited Western tourists and happy young people, Taksim Square looked like the city center of any European city.

Today Taksim Square is roiled by the fiercest protests seen since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power 11 years ago. What began as a minor green protest defending one of Istanbul’s many parks has turned into a massive anti-government agitation attracting global attention.

Clearly, the excessive reaction of riot police provided the necessary spark. But as Financial Times put it, it couldn’t have caught fire so fast if there was no powder trail to ignite. Notwithstanding the three consecutive electoral wins of Prime Minister Erdogan and his Justice and Development (AK) Party, the powerful Kemalist establishment is far from down and out. It sees the Islamists as usurpers of Mustafa Kemal’s legacy.

Erdogan for his part views the protests as yet another “plot by a fringe of secular extremists and anarchists” to destabilize his government. The fact that the protest which began in Istanbul spread to other parts of the country almost in sync suggests there may be something in his charge after all. Many enthusiastic Western and Arab commentators have chosen to describe this as Turkey’s own Arab Spring, drawing predictable parallels between Taksim and Cairo’s iconic Tahrir Square that saw Hosni Mubarak humbled.

Erdogan is no Mubarak though. And Turkey is not the corrupt and log-abused country ruled with an iron hand that was Egypt until three years ago. If anything, Erdogan has helped restore democracy and people power to its full vigor and glory by reining in the power-hungry generals, corrupt bureaucrats and judges.

Doubtless, Ataturk played a decisive role in building the modern Turkey during what were truly the most turbulent years in world history. However, he also carried his revulsion of the Ottoman caliphs and their incompetence in the face of marching imperialism too far banishing Islam itself. In the Muslim country that for centuries led the faithful under the Ottomans, belief had become a burden.
Wearing Hijab was a crime and use of Arabic even in religious context was a “no-no” as Ataturk went about changing the nation’s Qibla, forcing it to look Westward. Rightly or wrongly, Ataturk believed that the West or West’s way held the answers to all of Turkey’s woes.

After Ataturk’s departure, the army assumed his mantle and took it upon itself to think and decide for the people. For nearly seven decades, the army saw itself and acted as the so-called Deep State. It was the lord of all it surveyed, directly or indirectly ruling the country. (This model was heartily embraced by Pakistan, the newly created Muslim country, multiplying its woes).

The generals called the shots as they casually dismissed Parliaments and elected governments, as had been the case with Necmettin Erabkan in 1997. Both Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul cut their teeth under the first Islamist prime minister in a Versace suit and tie. The men in uniform tried the same against Erabkan’s protégé but ended up severely injuring themselves. One in eight generals today is in jail for that failed coup. The consummate strategist and smart student of history that he is, Erdogan has managed to tame the giant who had proved the nemesis of his mentor.

He hasn’t merely defanged the army and strengthened democratic institutions. By bringing in constitutional, political and judicial reforms, Turkey’s tallest leader since Ataturk has given a new sense of direction and charted a new path altogether for the nation that for centuries has acted as the bridge—literally—between Europe and Asia and between Islam and the West.

Erdogan has combined his spectacular electoral success, winning three watershed elections each time with greater mandate, with all-round economic growth and development. From being heavily indebted to the IMF 10 years ago, Turkey has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies today. It’s one of the few that have survived the global economic meltdown and chaos next door in Europe. In fact, it has been investing heavily in the Middle East and its backyard in Central Asia and eastern Europe.

In the words of Financial Times, “Erdogan’s achievements — in modernizing Turkey’s economy, taming the army and pioneering a politics of Muslim democracy, starting accession negotiations with the European Union and now, in starting a peace process with the Kurds — are extraordinary. In an international landscape of political pygmies, Erdogan stands out.”

One of his greatest achievements is busting the myth that Islam and democracy and religion and modernity cannot coexist. Even as he looks to join the EU and plays an ambitious role in the NATO, Turkey’s leader has successfully revived historical ties with the rest of the Islamic world and has been increasingly asserting the nation’s leadership in affairs of the Ummah.

Long before it won the hearts and minds in the Arab world by confronting the once close ally Israel, Turkey had been admired as a role model for a modern and progressive Muslim society. This may be why Turkish television dramas are such a rage across the Middle East. Turkey has successfully married Islamic spirit and traditions with the demands of a fast evolving world. It has been the first to come out in active support of the cravings for change in the Maghreb and the larger neighborhood.

It would be real a shame if this formidable legacy and defining period in the nation’s history is undermined by Erdogan’s own impatience. He needs all his political acumen and extraordinary leadership skills to deal with this crisis in the heart of Istanbul. And the last thing he needs right now is a display of force. As Teddy Roosevelt advised, speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.

By using force to deal with protests, he would be playing right into the hands of his detractors who are trying to turn what is essentially a local civic issue into a national movement against the government.

It is not easy though. Erdogan and the governing AKP remain wildly popular and enjoy grassroots support. The only thing that can lend a new lease of life to the ossified, Kemalist elites and legitimacy to their ‘cause’ is the prime minister’s own response. In the end if anyone could bring down Erdogan, it’s Erdogan himself.

Dissent and tolerance are essential to democracy. Turkey’s leaders-and their Islamist fellow travelers elsewhere—have to learn to live with it. They must evolve more tolerant, nuanced ways of dealing with opposition as befits an inclusive democracy. How about visiting Taksim Square and addressing the protesters’ legitimate concerns about the mindless development perhaps? It would instantly take the wind out of the opposition’s sails. A bulldozer approach to development, or anything for that matter, seldom works. The world is watching Turkey. It just cannot afford to fail.

Email: aijaz.sayed@hotmail.com

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Fog can be considered a cloud at ground level. The processes forming it, however, are usually different from those that form clouds.

Like clouds, fog is made up of condensed water droplets which are the result of the air being cooled to the point (actually, the dew point) where it can no longer hold all of the water vapor it contains.
For clouds, that cooling is almost always the result of rising of air, which cools from expansion. But for fog, which occurs next to the ground, there are usually other reasons for this cooling.

For instance, rain can cool and moisten the air near the surface until fog forms.

Or, as is more often the case, infrared cooling of a cloud-free, humid air mass at night can lead to fog formation – this is called “radiation fog”. Radiation fog is most common in the fall, when nights get longer, air masses begin to cool, and land and water surfaces that have warmed up during the summer are still evaporating a lot of water into the atmosphere.

Finally, a warm moist air mass blowing over a cold surface (usually snow or ice, or over a cold ocean surface) can also cause fog to form-this is called “advection fog”.

How, when and where does fog most likely occur?

•    Fog generally forms when the relative humidity reaches 100% at ground level.
•    The ability of fog to form suddenly and disappear as quickly is determined by what side of the dewpoint the temperature registers.
•    Long, cool autumn nights cause the air near the ground to chill, causing the formation of fog to be prevalent in fall.
•    Fog is most likely to occur at night or near dawn when the temperature of the day is normally at it’s lowest.
•    The cool ground air forms fog and dew as the air-cools and water vapors condense into tiny droplets of water.
•    Fog is typically thicker in low places as the heavy air flows downward.
•    Fog can also form over cold, snow-covered ground as warmer air moves in.
•    Fog forms often near creeks, waterways and river valleys as the water increases the humidity in the air.
•    Fog is most likely to occur when the dewpoint level is very near the current temperature reading, being no more than 5 degrees F. in difference.
•    Fog evaporates after sunrise as the sun warms the fog from the top down. The thicker the fog, the longer it takes to dissipate.

Fog is a collection of liquid water droplets or ice crystals suspended in the air at or near the Earth’s surface.[1] While fog is a type of stratus cloud, the term “fog” is typically distinguished from the more generic term “cloud” in that fog is low-lying, and the moisture in the fog is often generated locally (such as from a nearby body of water, like a lake or the ocean, or from nearby moist ground or marshes).[2] Fog is distinguished from mist only by its density, as expressed in the resulting decrease in visibility: Fog reduces visibility to less than 1 km (5/8 statute mile), whereas mist reduces visibility to no less than 1 km.[3] For aviation purposes in the UK, a visibility of less than 5 km but greater than 999 m is considered to be mist if the relative humidity is 70% or greater – below 70% haze is reported

Fog begins to form when water vapor condenses into tiny liquid water droplets in the air. The main ways water vapor is added to the air: wind convergence into areas of upward motion,[7] precipitation or virga falling from above,[8] daytime heating evaporating water from the surface of oceans, water bodies or wet land,[9] transpiration from plants,[10] cool or dry air moving over warmer water,[11] and lifting air over mountains.[12] Water vapor normally begins to condense on condensation nuclei such as dust, ice, and salt in order to form clouds.[13][14] Fog, like its slightly elevated cousin stratus, is a stable cloud deck which tends to form when a cool, stable air mass is trapped underneath a warm air mass.[15]

Fog normally occurs at a relative humidity near 100%.[16] This can be achieved by either adding moisture to the air or dropping the ambient air temperature.[16] Fog can form at lower humidities, and fog can sometimes not form with relative humidity at 100%. A reading of 100% relative humidity means that the air can hold no additional moisture; the air will become supersaturated if additional moisture is added.

Fog can form suddenly, and can dissipate just as rapidly, depending what side of the dew point the temperature is on. This phenomenon is known as flash fog.[17]

Another common type of formation is associated with sea fog (also known as haar or fret). This is due to the peculiar effect of salt. Clouds of all types require minute hygroscopic particles upon which water vapor can condense. Over the ocean surface, the most common particles are salt from salt spray produced by breaking waves. Except in areas of storminess, the most common areas of breaking waves are located near coastlines, hence the greatest densities of airborne salt particles are there. Condensation on salt particles has been observed to occur at humidities as low as 70%, thus fog can occur even in relatively dry air in suitable locations such as the California coast. Typically, such lower humidity fog is preceded by a transparent mistiness along the coastline as condensation competes with evaporation, a phenomenon that is typically noticeable by beachgoers in the afternoon. Another recently-discovered source of condensation nuclei for coastal fog is kelp. Researchers have found that under stress (intense sunlight, strong evaporation, etc.), kelp release particles of iodine which in turn become nuclei for condensation of water vapor.[18]

Fog commonly produces precipitation in the form of drizzle or very light snow. Drizzle occurs when the humidity of fog attains 100% and the minute cloud droplets begin to coalesce into larger droplets.[19] This can occur when the fog layer is lifted and cooled sufficiently, or when it is forcibly compressed from above. Drizzle becomes freezing drizzle when the temperature at the surface drops below the freezing point.

The thickness of fog is largely determined by the altitude of the inversion boundary, which in coastal or oceanic locales is also the top of the marine layer, above which the airmass is warmer and drier. The inversion boundary varies its altitude primarily in response to the weight of the air above it which is measured in terms of atmospheric pressure. The marine layer and any fogbank it may contain will be “squashed” when the pressure is high, and conversely, may expand upwards when the pressure above it is lowering

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Marguerite Stern and Pauline Hillier of France and Josephine Markmann of Germany, all members of the Femen protest group, appeared topless on May 29 to call for the release of fellow activist, Tunisian Amina Tyler, who was detained last month.

“The judge sentenced the three Femen activists to four months and one day in prison for an attack on public morals and indecency,” said one of their lawyers, Souheib Bahri.

Tyler, 18, was arrested in Kairouan on May 19 after she hung a feminist banner from the wall of a mosque and tried to bare her breasts, on the same day that the Islamist Ansar al-Sharia group held a rally in the city that authorities tried to ban.

She remains in custody awaiting trial.

Tyler has been at the center of controversy in recent months after she published topless photographs of herself on Facebook with the words “My body belongs to me and not the honor of others” written on her chest in Arabic.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius asked the Tunisian judiciary last week to show leniency towards the Femen activists.

“There are laws to be respected, but their act does not require major punishment,” Fabius told French radio station Europe 1.

Tunisia was the first country to be rocked by an “Arab Spring” uprising, inspiring similar revolutions in Egypt and Libya.

The new government is led by a moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, but hardline Islamist Salafists are seeking a broader role for religion, alarming a secular elite which fears this could undermine individual freedoms, women’s rights and democracy.

(Reporting By Tarek Amara; editing by Mike Collett-White)

Then-lawyer Thikra al Rashidi, who is currently Kuwait’s Social Affairs and Labour Minister, submits her registration as a candidate for Parliament for the 2nd District, in Shuwaikh in this November 9, 2012 file photo. Rashidi has called for the flow of foreigners coming to Kuwait to be reduced by 100,000 every year for the next decade, mainly by cutting down on unskilled workers entering the country and targeting people who are working illegally. Her ministry’s proposal is still in the planning stages but it has coincided with separate steps taken by other government bodies towards foreigners. Kuwait has deported around 3,000 Indians since the latest campaign started, the Arab Times reported in June 2013, quoting the Indian ambassador. The Indian embassy told Reuters the figure was “approximate”. Other nationalities have also been affected. REUTERS/Stephanie Mcgehee/Files

KUWAIT, June 12 (Reuters) – The narrow, cracked streets of the district of Jleeb al-Shuyoukh, down the road from Kuwait’s main airport, would normally be bustling with Indian and Bangladeshi workers by late morning, just before the summer sun becomes unbearable.

But since Kuwaiti police launched a series of raids about two months ago, saying they were tracking down illegal labourers, the streets are almost empty and many small businesses have closed their doors, residents say.

In the last few months, authorities have deported thousands of mainly low-paid Asian workers from the Gulf Arab state for working without the correct visa or residency papers or for repeat traffic offences, according to local media and residents. A government minister has called for a reduction in the number of “excess” foreign workers in Kuwait.

The oil-rich country relies heavily on foreign workers to perform low-paying and strenuous jobs in sectors such as construction and services; foreigners make up about 69 percent of Kuwait’s 3.8 million population.

Pressure to limit their numbers has been growing among some Kuwaitis who argue that too many workers are a burden on the state. They say that instead of bringing in foreigners, Kuwait should be trying harder to cut unemployment among its own nationals, which analysts estimate above 3.0 percent.

If this pressure continues to grow, it could have a major effect on Kuwait’s economy, limiting its access to low-cost labour, while reducing flows of money to countries which supply foreign workers such as India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines.

“Kuwait is keen to regulate the labour market because of the imbalance in the demographics,” Social Affairs and Labour Minister Thikra al-Rashidi told Reuters, saying the number of foreigners in Kuwait had increased 12.4 percent between 2008 and 2012.

“We have respect for all the expatriates who have participated in the labour market and contributed to the development of Kuwait,” she said, but added that there was an excess of unskilled “marginal” workers who were not contributing to the economy in a positive way.

Kuwait’s effort to limit expatriate workers is mirrored in several other Gulf countries, which want to curb large foreign populations to address demands for jobs among their own citizens.

Saudi Arabia has deported tens of thousands of illegal foreign workers this year; in February, Oman’s government said it would impose a cap on the number of foreigners.

Rashidi has called for the flow of foreigners coming to Kuwait to be reduced by 100,000 every year for the next decade, mainly by cutting down on unskilled workers entering the country and targeting people who are working illegally.

Her ministry’s proposal is still in the planning stages but it has coincided with separate steps taken by other government bodies towards foreigners.

Kuwait has deported around 3,000 Indians since the latest campaign started, the Arab Times reported this week, quoting the Indian ambassador. The Indian embassy told Reuters the figure was “approximate”. Other nationalities have also been affected.

“The police caught so many people. They came at any time, morning, afternoon, night,” said Rashed, a 36-year-old Bangladeshi barber in Jleeb.

Before the raids, he usually had around 20 customers by late morning, but that morning there had been none, he said, declining to give his full name for fear of getting in trouble with authorities. He said he had not experienced such a strict crackdown since he came to Kuwait 11 years ago.

Contacted by Reuters, the Interior Ministry did not give figures for the number of people deported for traffic offences or incorrect paperwork, but it said laws were applied fairly.

“It is the right of any state…to take appropriate legal action to ensure stability and security of the country,” it said in a statement. It added, “The Interior Ministry denies the charge that it is targeting expatriates.”

Diplomats from the Indian and Bangladeshi embassies have appealed for an amnesty period before workers are deported, similar to one granted by Saudi Arabia.

“We conveyed our concern that our legal people should not be deported, and the deported people should take their salaries and dues from their sponsors,” said Ali Reza, First Secretary at the Embassy of Bangladesh in Kuwait.

Hundreds of Indians held a rare public gathering outside their embassy last week to demand information about people who had been detained or deported.

Critics of the policy say steep cuts in the foreign workforce are not economically feasible, especially since more labourers will be needed to implement a 30 billion dinar ($108 billion) development plan which includes building a new airport terminal, an oil refinery and hospitals.

Some companies prefer to employ foreigners rather than Kuwaitis who, they say, often seek higher pay and cannot be as easily dismissed under law.

But the backlash against foreign workers is not purely economic; they have been blamed in some local media for aggravating social problems.

“Kuwait’s interest calls for washing our hands of the excessive number of expatriates,” an article in the al-Watan newspaper said in April. “Cutting the number of immigrants could help any country as it helps reduce traffic congestion, high consumption of water and electricity, crimes and violations of law.”

In another controversial move, the government is studying a proposal to reserve morning hours for Kuwaitis only at public health clinics. The plan would not affect the private hospitals frequented by wealthier expatriates.

After Kuwait’s main civil rights group said the plan was discriminatory, the Ministry of Health said in a statement: “The proposal is intended to ease the overcrowding at clinics that continues to increase for regular check-ups.” It stressed the new policy would not include emergency care.

Shamlan Alissa, an associate professor at Kuwait University, said it was not right that foreigners could be deported for repeat traffic violations, while the worst that a Kuwaiti might face would be suspension of his driving licence, an impounded car or a fine.

His comments, printed in al-Watan, provoked a public reaction which was “not that pleasant”, he said. “There is a popular hatred towards foreigners because we (Kuwaitis) are only 30 percent” of the population.”

Ghanem al-Najjar, a professor of political science at Kuwait University who has campaigned for migrant workers in the past, said the government should target businessmen and agencies who brought in thousands of labourers for projects and then dismissed some of them, forcing them to look for work elsewhere.

“There are people bringing them in, the residency traders – these are the people who are not touched. That is a major cause of the problem,” he said.

Abdullah, a 35-year-old taxi driver from Pakistan, said he had stopped driving his car into Jleeb because he feared getting stopped, even though he always carried the correct papers.

Some labour agencies in Kuwait have duped foreigners by charging them hundreds of dollars for processing a work permit and then not giving them a position, forcing them to turn to illegal jobs, he said.

Foreigners helped to rebuild Kuwait after the 1990 Iraqi invasion but now feel unwelcome even if they are there legally, he added. “They just used us and now they want to throw us away.”

(Editing by Andrew Torchia)

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(Reuters) – Violent protests that have hit Turkey over recent days need to end swiftly but will have no bearing on Istanbul’s candidacy to host the 2020 Olympics, bid leaders said on Wednesday.

Turkey is also scheduled to host the Under-20 soccer World Cup, starting on June 21, and the sport’s world governing body FIFA said the tournament would go ahead as planned.

Riot police have cleared the Istanbul square at the center of almost two weeks of protest against Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

“The feedback Istanbul 2020 has received from IOC (International Olympic Committee) members and the wider Olympic family continues to be positive and very understanding,” bid officials said in a statement.

“While they are obviously as keen as we are for a swift and peaceful resolution, the majority of people we have spoken to recognize that 2020 is still seven years away.”

Istanbul is bidding for the fifth time in the last six IOC votes for the summer Olympics with Japan’s Tokyo and Spanish capital Madrid also in the running. The IOC will elect the winning bid in September.

Turkey’s biggest city, whose bid is called “Bridge together”, has highlighted its location at the crossroads of Asia and Europe and is eager to become the first city of a majority Muslim country to land the world’s biggest multi-sports event.

The city saw more fighting overnight with police in running battles with pockets of demonstrators, clearing Taksim Square which by dawn was strewn with wreckage from bulldozed barricades.

Several hundred protesters remained in an encampment of tents in nearby Gezi Park.

Erdogan, who has dismissed the demonstrators as “riff-raff”, was due to meet a group of public figures to discuss the unrest, which began as a peaceful campaign against plans to build on the park abutting the square.

“This situation will have no bearing on our ability to deliver our Games concept, which was designed after consultation with environmental groups and NGOs (non-governmental organizations),” Istanbul 2020 said.

“This is a bid for the people of Turkey and we are united by our passion to bring the Games here for the first time. Istanbul 2020, and the 20-year dream of the Turkish people, will not be affected by these events.”

CALM DOWN

Bid cities are due to attend a meeting of national Olympic Committees in Lausanne in Switzerland later this week with Istanbul planning to offer “assurances” there.

Bidders will also attend a key IOC meeting in Lausanne on July 3 to present their files to all members for the first time.

Like the Olympic bid, Turkey hopes the hosting of the Under-20 soccer World Cup will be unaffected by the recent protests with FIFA president Sepp Blatter saying football was a good way of uniting people.

“We have been in contact with the political authorities in Turkey since the conflict arose in the country and guarantees have been given that nothing will happen,” he told reporters.

“What is more, we are sure that football can help calm down the situation because the tournament will be played in seven cities and it’s a good opportunity to show that football can bring people together.

“Football connects people all over the world, can you imagine that football is being played in Syria every day, in Kabul, not to mention Iraq and Libya although a fixture had to be moved from Benghazi to Tripoli,” he added.

“We shall not remove football under any circumstances.”

(Reporting by Karolos Grohmann; Additional reporting by Zoran Milosavljevic; Editing by Mark Meadows and Sonia Oxley)

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A governorate worker waters plants at the New Cairo building area on the outskirts of Cairo June 10, 2013. Egypt does not want war with Ethiopia but will keep “all options open”, Egypt’s President Mohamed Mursi said on Monday, turning up the heat in a dispute over a giant dam Addis Ababa is building across the Nile. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

CAIRO, June 11 (Reuters) – A gift of gas to Egypt from tiny Qatar shows just how tough this summer is shaping up to be for the government in Cairo, facing a funding crunch and power cuts as it struggles to contain explosive public discontent.

Daily blackouts have darkened homes and businesses across the country over the past few weeks, aggravated in recent days by an early summer heatwave that has Egyptians cranking up their air conditioners.

Qatar on Monday offered five cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), worth perhaps $300 million, “as a gift to the Egyptian people during the summer months”.

It is a small gesture from a Gulf ally which has already lent Egypt some $7 billion in the past year but highlights how tough times are for the 84 million Egyptians.

Falling living standards since the 2011 revolt that ended six decades of military rule have led to disillusionment focused on Islamist President Mohamed Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood. Opponents have called for mass protests on June 30, the first anniversary of Mursi’s election.

The country’s budget deficit has widened, the Egyptian pound has weakened, and investors have taken fright, sending the Cairo share index on Monday to its lowest close in more than 10 months.
A vicious circle of unrest and slumping tourism revenues has drained government cash reserves, leaving ministers scrambling for favours abroad, notably to maintain supplies of heavily subsidised fuel and bread that account for a quarter of all government spending.

“We will suffer this summer,” said Mohamed Shoeib, who until recently ran EGAS, the state natural gas concern, and is now a managing director at private equity firm Citadel Capital.

“This will be the hardest and most difficult and darkest summer Egypt has ever seen.”

Adding to worries about energy, the month-long Muslim fast of Ramadan will begin around July 9, a time when tempers can fray as temperatures hit 40 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) and above.

FISCAL CRUNCH

Since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the authorities have run through more than half of Egypt’s foreign reserves, or some $20 billion.

They have also borrowed billions from abroad and delayed payments to oil companies and other suppliers.

Yet partly due to fuel subsidies energy consumption remains high as the state grapples to pay for imports of fuel to generate electricity.

In April, Qatar and Libya extended loans worth $5 billion and Libya said it would provide another $1.2 billion in credit to buy crude oil for Egypt at world prices.

But this will only plug a portion of the country’s energy gap, and still leaves Egypt needing to find fuel on the international market, get it from ports to power plants, keep those plants running at near full capacity and deliver the electricity to consumers across a leaky power grid.

This is proving difficult, with rolling blackouts throughout the country, some for up to 10 hours at a time, which prompted protests in late May, and a heatwave in early June that pushed temperatures in Cairo to 45 Celsius and compounded the problem.

In some places, people blocked roads and railways to demand power – needed in many apartments to pump water.

In the ancient Pharaonic capital of Luxor, local governor Ezzat Saad told Reuters that power cuts blacked out major tourist sites last month, including the 3,400-year-old temple, and he had appealed to Cairo to prevent such incidents.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Successive governments have long avoided of cutting subsidies on fuel which has left Egypt, once a net exporter of energy, in need of imported gas and products including diesel, fuel oil and gasoline.
The political instability of the past two years has also stalled exploration and drilling activities in Egypt’s key offshore and desert areas, reducing production at a time of rising domestic demand.

It has also delayed infrastructure needed to import LNG. Currently Egypt’s two LNG terminals are equipped only for export, meaning the five Qatari cargoes are likely to be diverted to clients previously contracted to buy Egyptian gas.

Egyptian officials expect to be able to receive LNG imports by October, but industry sources say it could take up to 14 months before a floating import facility can be towed into place and connected to the country’s grid.

In the meantime, Egypt has already cut back on gas exports to free up supply for its own power stations, including pipeline deliveries to Jordan.

Its power plants that use fuel oil also face difficulties, including foreign suppliers that have become reluctant to offer credit terms and bottlenecks in distribution.

“Even if you have the money to import all the amounts that you need, the logistics that we have cannot cope with transporting them,” former EGAS head Shoeib said.

“Since the revolution they are struggling to get fuel oil from ports to power plants,” one fuel oil trader in the region said.

Last summer, during the hottest days, electricity consumption peaked at 27,000 megawatts (MW) and seems likely to do so again this year, pressing the power sector to its limits.

“In the summer, in Ramadan … on some days (demand) could rise to 29,000,” Aktham Abou-Elella, undersecretary of state at the Electricity Ministry, told Reuters.

“We can’t operate at more than 86 percent of capacity – 27,000 is our ceiling. Anything above that we for sure need to conserve energy.”

The government is hoping a public awareness campaign can help cut demand this summer.

“It could result in a reduction in consumption of 2,000 MW at least, especially setting air-conditioners at 25 degrees rather than 18 degrees and turning off unnecessary lights,” Abou-Elella said.
Mosques and government buildings will be urged to save electricity, he said, adding that the ministry had agreed with energy-intensive industries to smooth out peak loads.

Some businesses have, however, have suffered shortages of energy.

Mahmoud Arafat, a spokesman for the Nahda cement plant in Qena, 700 km (400 miles) south of Cairo, said it ran out of diesel on May 28, forcing it to lay off 600 workers. Another cement executive said production at major plants around the capital has fallen by half for lack of fuel.

In the Mediterranean port of Damietta, a major furniture-making centre, hundreds of people staged a sit-in outside the local power station last month in protest over repeated blackouts that had disrupted factories for days.

At the Electricity Ministry, Abou-Elella estimated that blackouts might last no more than an hour a day but hoped the government plans to manage demand would work.

“If all these attempts succeed, we should have an acceptable summer,” he said. “We should not have black-outs.”

(Additional reporting by Oleg Vukmanovic and Julia Payne in London; editing by Alastair Macdonald and Jason Neely)

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